Simulation of Cascading Failure on Hazardous Materials Transportation Network under Targeted Attack
CHONG Pengyun1, YIN Hui2
1.Traffic Safety Research Center, Department of Transportation of Yunnan Province, Yunnan Science Research Institute of Communication, Kunming 650011, China; 2.Power China Kunming Engineering Corporation Limited, Kunming 650051, China
Abstract：Based on the model of cascading failure on hazardous materials transportation network (HMTN), this paper researched the characteristics of cascading failure on HMTN and the different targeted attack strategies to the impact of cascading failure on HMTN by controlling the model parameters. Firstly, based on the parameters of HMTN of Dalian city, it established the network generation algorithm of HMTN based on WS small-world network. Secondly, it established the node initial load model with time stage characteristics and tunable parameters, and established the preferential allocation probability model to “failure” node and node capacity model, by using node load dynamic allocation probability value, it described node in the “normal”, “pause” and “failure” three states, then the mechanism model of cascading failure on HMTN was established. Finally, by establishing two kinds of targeted attack strategies and regarding the average size of network cascading failure and phase transition critical value as the measure of invulnerability, a comparative study of different targeted attack strategies to invulnerability of HMTN is researched. Simulation results and theoretical analysis show that: 1) the model of cascading failure on HMTN is reasonable and effective; 2) the node capacity factor and overload capacity adjustment parameter aren’t sensitive to the change of targeted attack strategies, but it’s useful to reduce the average size of network cascading failure and improve the invulnerability of HMTN by increasing their value; 3) For the targeted attack strategies of node degree in descending order, the smaller the tunable parameter is, the stronger the invulnerability of HMTN will be, but for the targeted attack strategies of node degree in ascending order, the bigger the tunable parameter is, the stronger the invulnerability of HMTN will be, and the intersection of their phase transition critical value curves at tunable parameters is equal to 0.5. These results provide a theoretical basis to prevent the terrorist attack for HMTN.
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