Abstract：Recently, “environment-to-human” transmission has become a new pattern in the spread of COVID-19, and novel coronavirus variants with increased infectivity have appeared in many countries. With considering the “environment-to-human” transmission and virus mutations of the novel coronavirus, the SEIQR model of infectious disease dynamics was established to simulate the development trend of the epidemic. The results showed that, the increased infectivity of virus variants and “environment-to-human” transmission positively affects the spread and speed of COVID-19 epidemic, in which the virus variants had a more significant impact, and the “environment-to-human” transmission will promote the outbreak time of the epidemic to be greatly advanced. For the virus variants with higher infectivity, elevating the intensity of interventions has a more remarkable effect on controlling the spread of COVID-19 variants.
李稚, 宋敏. 基于“病毒变异”和“环境传人”因素的COVID-19疫情传播动力学研究[J]. 复杂系统与复杂性科学, 2021, 18(4): 1-8.
LI Zhi, SONG Min. Transmission Dynamics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Based on “Virus Variants” and “Environment-to-human”. Complex Systems and Complexity Science, 2021, 18(4): 1-8.
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