安徽省间日疟传染率分析

白迪; 周武略; 赵继军; 白迪; 周武略; 赵继军

doi:10.13306/j.1672-3813.2021.01.010

复杂系统与复杂性科学 >

2021 , Vol. 18 >Issue 1: 73 - 79

DOI: https://doi.org/10.13306/j.1672-3813.2021.01.010

安徽省间日疟传染率分析

白迪 ,
周武略 ,
赵继军 ,
白迪 ,
周武略 ,
赵继军

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青岛大学复杂性科学研究所,山东青岛 266071

白迪(1995),男,河南郑州人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为流行病学动态特征。

收稿日期: 2020-05-31

修回日期: 2020-09-14

网络出版日期: 2020-12-28

基金资助

山东自然科学基金(ZR2018MH037)

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Analysis of Transmission Rate of P. Vivax Malaria in Anhui Province

BAI Di ,
ZHOU Wulüe ,
ZHAO Jijun ,
BAI Di ,
ZHOU Wulüe ,
ZHAO Jijun

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Institute of Complex Science, Qingdao 266071, China

Received date: 2020-05-31

Revised date: 2020-09-14

Online published: 2020-12-28

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摘要

间日疟的传播媒介中华按蚊仍普遍存在,但对间日疟的传播动态的研究仍极其有限。以安徽省间日疟为例,估算蚊子叮咬率、间日疟的传染率以及它们的季节性,并进一步分析传染率发生季节性变化的影响因素。采用人类与蚊子相耦合的SIR-SI(Susceptible Infected Recovered-Susceptible Infected)模型对间日疟的传播动态建模,估算随时间变化的蚊子叮咬率以及传染率;建立多元线性回归模型探究温度和降水量对蚊子叮咬率和间日疟传染率的影响。结果表明:间日疟蚊子叮咬率和传染率有显著的年季节性(季节性幅度为42.4%);间日疟传染率受到温度(p值为7.23e11)以及降水量(p值为0.004)的显著影响;间日疟发病数受传染率的影响不仅呈现每年一个周期的特点,由于易感者人数的变化,还存在多年一个大周期的特点。

关键词： 间日疟; 传染率季节性; 温度; 降水量

本文引用格式

白迪 , 周武略 , 赵继军 , 白迪 , 周武略 , 赵继军 . 安徽省间日疟传染率分析[J]. 复杂系统与复杂性科学, 2021 , 18(1) : 73 -79 . DOI: 10.13306/j.1672-3813.2021.01.010

Abstract

The vector of p. vivax malaria, Anopheles sinensis, is still prevalent in China, but the study on transmission dynamics of p. vivax malaria is still limited. We took p. vivax malaria in Anhui province as an example, and estimated the mosquito biting rate, p. vivax malaria transmission rate and their seasonality. We further analyzed the factors affecting the seasonality in the transmission rate. The SIR-SI(Susceptible Infected Recovered-Susceptible Infected) human-mosquito coupled model was adopted for the transmission dynamics of p. vivax and the mosquito biting rate and the transmission rate over time were estimated. A multiple linear regression model was established to analyze the effects of temperature and rainfall on mosquito biting rate and p. vivax malaria transmission rate. Our results showed that: The mosquito biting rate and transmission rate of p. vivax malaria have significant annual seasonality (seasonal amplitude of 42.4%); The transmission rate of p. vivax malaria was significantly affected by temperature (p=7.23e11) and rainfall (p=0.004);The number of the Infected of p. vivax malaria not only had one year cyclic pattern, but also showed multi-year cyclic pattern due to long-term change in the number of the Susceptible.

Key words： p. vivax malaria; transmission rate seasonality; temperature; rainfall

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