文章检索

基于复杂行为响应的传染病爆发问题的研究

  • 柳文艳 ,
  • 张玉霞 ,
  • 蔡世民 ,
  • 何嘉林 ,
  • 尚明生 ,
  • 柳文艳 ,
  • 张玉霞 ,
  • 蔡世民 ,
  • 何嘉林 ,
  • 尚明生
展开
  • 1.电子科技大学a.计算机科学与工程学院,b.大数据研究中心,成都 611731;
    2.华南理工大学物理与光电学院,广州 510640
柳文艳(1989-),女,河北衡水人,硕士,主要研究方向为复杂网络理论应用于疫情监控。

收稿日期: 2015-06-05

  修回日期: 2015-09-21

  网络出版日期: 2025-02-24

基金资助

国家自然科学基金(61370150,61433014,71490720,61673086)

The Study of Infectious Disease Outbreaks Based on Complex Behavior Response

  • LIU Wenyan ,
  • ZHANG Yuxia ,
  • CAI Shimin ,
  • HE Jialin ,
  • SHANG Mingsheng ,
  • LIU Wenyan ,
  • ZHANG Yuxia ,
  • CAI Shimin ,
  • HE Jialin ,
  • SHANG Mingsheng
Expand
  • 1. a.School of Computer Scinece and Engineering, b.Big Data Research Center, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu 611731, China;
    2. Department of Physics, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510640, China

Received date: 2015-06-05

  Revised date: 2015-09-21

  Online published: 2025-02-24

摘要

在小世界网络拓扑结构上,研究信息影响力、接种比例和个体间信息传播概率的变化,对传染病传播的影响。研究发现小世界强度减弱时,信息影响力对传染病爆发概率和爆发规模的影响作用发生了逆转;在个体间信息传播速率增加的过程中,传染病的爆发概率和爆发规模呈现上升的趋势。

本文引用格式

柳文艳 , 张玉霞 , 蔡世民 , 何嘉林 , 尚明生 , 柳文艳 , 张玉霞 , 蔡世民 , 何嘉林 , 尚明生 . 基于复杂行为响应的传染病爆发问题的研究[J]. 复杂系统与复杂性科学, 2017 , 14(1) : 8 -14 . DOI: 10.13306/j.1672-3813.2017.01.002

Abstract

We research the effect of information strength, inoculation ratio and individual information transmission rate on disease outbreaks in small-word network. The study finds that, the effect of information strength on the outbreak probability and scale of infectious disease occur reversal with the strength of small world weakening gradually. In the process of information transmission rate increasing, the outbreak probability and size of infectious disease outbreak show rising tendency.

参考文献

[1] Koole S L. The psychology of emotion regulation: an integrative review[J].Cognition & Emotion, 2009, 23(1): 4-41.
[2] Strongman K T. The Psychology of Emotion[M].England: John Wiley & Sons, 1987: 21-39.
[3] Kou G, Zhao Y, Peng Y, et al. Multi-level opinion dynamics under bounded confidence[J].PLoS One, 2012, 7(9): 43507.
[4] Ng K H, Lean M L. The Fukushima nuclear crisis reemphasizes the need for improved risk communication and better use of social media[J].Health Phys, 2012, 103(3): 307-310.
[5] Shen K, Fang C, Lei C, et al. The Study of panic to nuclear energy on psychological and sociological issues[C]//21st International Conference on Nuclear Engineering Beijing, 2013, 11-17.
[6] Soble J, Dickie M. How fukushima failed[J].Financial Times Magazine, 2011, 17: 52.
[7] Holbrook M B, Hirschman E C. The experiential aspects of consumption: consumer fantasies, feelings, and fun[J].J Consum Res, 1982, 9(2): 132-140.
[8] Hirschman E C, Holbrook M B. Hedonic consumption: emerging concepts, methods and propositions[J].J Marketing Res,1982, 46(3): 92-101.
[9] Dempsey A F, Zimet G D, Davis R L, et al. Factors that are associated with parental acceptance of human pusillanimous vaccines: a randomized intervention study of written information about HPV[J].Pediatrics, 2006, 117(5): 1486-1493.
[10] Sinclair C L, Zhou C. Descriptive epidemiology of animal bites in Indiana, 1990-92—a rationale for intervention[J].Pub Health Rep, 1995, 110(1): 64-67.
[11] Salathe M, Bonhoeffer S. The effect of opinion clustering on disease outbreaks[J].J R Soc Interface, 2008, 5(29): 1505-1508.
[12] Salathe M, Khandelwal S. Assessing vaccination sentiments with online social media: implications for infectious disease dynamics and control[J].PLoS Comput Biol, 2011, 7 (10): 1002199.
[13] Salathe M, Vu D Q, Khandelwal S, et al. The dynamics of health behavior sentiments on a large online social network[J].EPJ Data Sci, 2013, 2(4): 1-12.
[14] Torun S D, Torun F. Vaccination against pandemic influenza A/H1N1 among healthcare workers and reasons for refusing vaccination in Istanbul in last pandemic alert phase[J].Vaccine, 2010, 28(35): 5703-5710.
[15] Fu F, Rosenbloom D I, Wang L, et al. Imitation dynamics of vaccination behavior on social networks[J].Proc R Soc Lond B, 2011, 278(1702): 42-49.
[16] Centola D. The spread of behavior in an online social network experiment[J].Science, 2010, 329(5996): 1194-1197.
[17] Centola D, Macy M. Complex contagions and the weakness of long ties[J].Am J Sociol, 2007, 113(3): 702-734.
[18] Macy M W. Chains of cooperation: threshold effects in collective action[J].Am Sociol Rev, 1991, 56(6): 730-747.
[19] Granell C, Gomez S, Arenas A. Competing spreading processes on multiplex networks: awareness and epidemics[J].Phys Rev E, 2014, 90(1): 012808.
[20] Johnson E J, Tversky A. Affect, generalization, and the perception of risk[J].J Pers Soc Psychol, 1983, 45(1): 20-31.
[21] Palekar R, Pettifor A, Behets F, et al. Association between knowing someone who died of AIDS and behavior change among South African youth[J].AIDS Behav, 2008,12(6): 903-912.
[22] Tversky A, Kahneman D. Availability: a heuristic for judging frequency and probability[J].Cogn Psychol, 1973, 5(2): 207-232.
[23] Campbell E, Salathe M. Complex social contagion makes networks more vulnerable to disease outbreaks[J].Sci Rep, 2013, 6(3): 1905.
[24] May R M. Network structure and the biology of populations[J].Trends Ecol Evol, 2006, 21(7): 394-399.
[25] Kermack W O, McKendrick A G. A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics[J].Proc R Soc Lond A, 1927, 115(3): 700-721.
[26] Watts D J, Strogatz S H. Collective dynamics of 'small-world' networks[J].Nature,1998, 393(6684): 440-442.
文章导航

/

〈 〉