建立了新兴产业中一个带有技术溢出和内生需求的动态三寡头R&D投入博弈模型,着重讨论了决策调整速度和技术溢出率对于模型复杂性的影响。通过三维稳定域研究了模型的纳什均衡点对于决策调整速度和技术溢出率的稳定性,通过二维分岔图对模型的局部分岔进行了分析研究,发现如果决策调整速度过快,系统会通过flip或N-S分岔失去稳定,并最终走向混沌。同时研究了R&D投入调整速度和技术溢出率造成的系统失稳对于各寡头利润的影响程度,发现系统失稳对于各方利润的影响不尽相同,控制技术溢出率,可以确保合作的两个寡头的利润优势。对该模型进行了全局分岔分析,发现寡头们的每一次决策值都不可以盲目的过高。
In this paper, a R&D input game model with spillovers, endogenous demand in a triopoly market is considered. All the players only get incomplete information and we assume they are all bounded rational. Two players make up a cooperative team, and share the technology achievements completely. On the basis of analyzing the stabilities of the only Nash equilibrium point, three-dimensional stable regions are investigated. The complex dynamics, such as bifurcation scenarios, route to chaos are displayed by 2D bifurcation diagrams. Impact of the adjustment speed, spillover rate and endogenous demand parameter on the profit is studied.
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