为探究早期预警信号(EWS)在预测疾病重新暴发时的表现,对接种行为影响下的传染病动态系统进行研究,建立考虑接种行为的传染病模型,并使用模型仿真数据计算不同统计指标作为EWS,包括自相关系数、方差、均值、增量方差、偏度和残差,再通过ROC曲线评估这些指标的性能。自相关系数、方差、均值和增量方差具有较好的性能表现。研究结果证明了EWS在检测传染病系统转变时的有效性,并对传染病暴发的早期预警信号研究具有一定的意义。
This study aimed to explore the performance of Early Warning Signals (EWS) in predicting the re-emergence of infectious diseases under the influence of vaccination behavior in dynamic systems. First, we established an infectious disease model considering population behavior. Then, we used the model simulation data to calculate different statistical indicators, including mean, variance, autocorrelation coefficient, incremental variance, skewness, and residuals, which will be used as EWS. Finally, we used the Receiver Operating Characteristic curves(ROC)to evaluate the performance of these indicators. Autocorrelation coefficient, variance, mean, and incremental variance demonstrated favorable performance. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of EWS in detecting the transitions of infectious disease systems and hold particular significance in the study of early warning signals for disease outbreaks.
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