以SourceForge社区为例,研究了开源项目开发过程中的风险传递和崩塌级联反应,对开源社区的雪崩效应进行了实证研究。分析发现,技术关联与合作关联是开源项目之间风险传递的两种主要模式,基于上述关联模式,某个项目的失败会引发一定规模的雪崩级联反应。针对SourceForge开源社区的实证研究结果显示,雪崩规模呈幂律分布,最大雪崩规模仅为18,但规模持续变大,这意味着社区处于创建期到成长期的演化阶段。
To verify avalanche dynamics of open source community, the paper offers an empirical study on SourceForge.net, which is the largest open source community in the world. It researches risk transfer between projects and the cascading phenomenon, finds there are two kinds of mechanisms, through which to transfer risk and trigger an avalanche, they include technical co-relation and cooperative co-relation. We measure the distribution of the avalanche size on the Sourceforge.net. The results show that the avalanche sizes follow power law distributions and the maximum size is only 18. However, based on the analysis of the dynamic evolution results of the cross section data, we find that the maximum massive avalanche size continues to get bigger, which means that Sourceforge.net is evolving into the growth stage.
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