首先对某大型物流基地产品出库的间隔分布进行分析,发现物流基地内各不同仓库的钢材产品出库间隔均具有显著阵发特征,出库时间间隔较为一致地服从幂指数为2.5的幂律分布,而个体的出库行为则不具有阵发特征。进一步地,对物流系统的阵发特征产生机理,物流系统的节假日及内部作业等问题进行探讨。最后,利用重极标差方法,发现物流系统产品出库量普遍服从分形布朗运动,HURST指数大于0.5。结果表明物流基地的产品出库量不仅受当前市场价格的引导,且具有长记忆性,与过去的出库量密切相关。
In the paper, we firstly find that the steel products warehouse-out of all the warehouses in the large-scale logistics base is characterized by burst and the warehouse-out inter-event time follow the power-law distribution with exponents close to 2.5. On the meanwhile, compared with the group behaviors, the individual behavior does not show the burst feature in logistics system. Further, we discuss the burst mechanism caused by the festival holidays and interior task scheduling. Finally, the paper uses the R/S method to analyze the amount of the warehouse-out and finds it obey fractional Brownian motion. The Hurst over 0.5 means that the present warehouse-out of the logistics base is not only affected by the market price, but also related to the amount of the past accumulated amount.
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