为探索能源价格冲击下集群式供应链网络风险传播过程,基于复杂网络理论,运用数值仿真探索能源价格冲击下集群式供应链网络风险传播特征。结果表明:能源价格的波动会通过生产联系对企业向下一阶段企业提供产品的数量造成影响;无标度网络、随机网络和小世界网络对随机攻击表现出鲁棒性,对蓄意攻击表现出脆弱性;首次攻击节点数越少,集群式供应链网络瘫痪的速度越慢;集群式供应链网络失效的概率与战略弹性参数成反比,与外部依赖参数成正比。
To explore the risk propagation process of cluster supply chain networks under energy price shocks, based on complex network theory, numerical simulation is used to explore the risk propagation characteristics of cluster supply chain networks under energy price shocks. The results indicate that fluctuations in energy prices will have an impact on the quantity of products provided by enterprises to the next stage through production linkages; Scale free networks, random networks, and small world networks exhibit robustness against random attacks, while intentional attacks exhibit vulnerability; The fewer the first attack nodes, the slower the speed of cluster supply chain network paralysis; The probability of cluster supply chain network failure is inversely proportional to strategic resilience parameters and directly proportional to external dependency parameters.
[1] 何宇, 田杰鑫, 覃朝晖, 等. 基于生产网络视角的中国产业链韧性测度研究[J]. 复杂系统与复杂性科学, 2024, 21(4): 21-27, 114.
HE Y, TIAN J X, QIN Z H, et al. Research on the measurement of industrial chain resilience in China based on the perspective of production network[J]. Complex Systems and Complexity Science, 2024, 21(4): 21-27, 114.
[2] 杨福霞, 徐江川, 杨冕, 等. 能源价格波动、诱导性技术进步与中国环境全要素生产率[J]. 中国管理科学, 2018, 26(11): 31-41.
YANG F X, XU J C, YANG M, et al. Energy price, induced technological change and China's environmental total factor productivity[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2018, 26(11): 31-41.
[3] VALADKHANI A, BABACAN A, DABIR-ALAI P. The impacts of rising energy prices on non-energy sectors in Australia[J]. Economic Analysis & Policy, 2014, 44(4): 386-395.
[4] 曹飞. 石油价格冲击与中国实际经济波动研究——基于开放RBC模型的分析[J]. 中国管理科学, 2015, 23(7): 45-52.
CAO F. Oil price shocks and China's actual economic fluctuations-an RBC model analysis[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2015, 23(7): 45-52.
[5] 倪红福, 闫冰倩, 吴立元. 生产链长度与PPI—CPI分化——基于全球投入产出价格模型的分析[J]. 中国工业经济, 2023(6): 5-23.
NI H F, YAN B Q, WU L Y. Length of production chain and PPl-CPl divergence: theoretical and empirical analysis based on global input-output price model[J]. China Industrial Economics, 2023(6): 5-23.
[6] ZHANG W, YANG J, ZHANG Z Y, SHACKMAN J, D. Natural gas price effects in China based on the CGE model[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2017, 147, 497-505.
[7] NCHOFOUNG T N. Oil price shocks and energy transition in Africa[J]. Energy Policy, 2024, 184, 113855.
[8] DOLGUI A, IVANOV D, SOKOLOV B J. Ripple effect in the supply chain: an analysis and recent literature[J]. International Journal of Production Research, 2018, 56: 414-430.
[9] SARKAR B, DEBNATH A, CHIU A S F, et al. Circular economy-driven two-stage supply chain management for nullifying waste[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2022, 339, 130513.
[10] IVANOV D, SOKOLOV B, DOLGUI A. The Ripple effect in supply chains: trade-off ‘efficiency-flexibility-resilience' in disruption management[J]. International Journal of Production Research, 2014, 52(7): 2154-2172.
[11] 杨小博, 高海伟, 刘天越, 等. 新能源汽车供应链的关键风险节点识别方法[J]. 计算机科学, 2023, 50(S1): 846-852.
YANG X B, GAO H W, LIU T Y, et al. Key risk node identification methods in new energy vehicle supply chain[J]. Computer Science, 2023, 50(S1): 846-852.
[12] 王星星, 钟维琼, 朱德朋. 全球镍矿贸易网络的供应风险传播研究[J]. 地球学报, 2023, 44(2): 361-368.
[13] Basole R C, Ballamy M A. Supply network structure, visibility, and risk diffusion: a computational approach[J]. Decision Sciences, 2014. 45(4): 753-789.
[14] 王杏. 基于复杂网络的农产品供应链建模与网络风险传播研究[D]. 长春: 吉林大学, 2017.
WANG X. Agri-food supply chain modeling and risk propagation based on complex network theory[D]. Changchun: Jilin University,2017.
[15] CARVALHO V M, NIREI M, SAITO Y U, et al. Supply chain disruptions: evidence from the great east Japan earthquake[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2021, 136(2): 1255-1321.
[16] ANTRAS P, GORTARI A. On the geography of global value chains[J]. Econometrica, 2020. 88(4): 1553-1598.
[17] 尹航, 侯霁珊, 齐岳. 基于节点蓄意攻击的集群式供应链网络抗毁性研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2025, 33(2): 161-171.
YIN H, HOU J S, QI Y. The vulnerability of cluster supply chain networks based on deliberate node attack[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2025, 33(2): 161-171.
[18] 王建伟, 荣莉莉. 面向相继故障的复杂网络上袭击策略研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2009, 17(1): 125-130.
WANG J W, RONG L L. Cascade-oriented attack on complex networks[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2009, 17(1): 125-130.
