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| Modeling and Analysis of COVID-19 in Wuhan |
| ZHOU Wulüe, BAI Di, ZHAO Jijun
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| Institute of Complex Science,Qingdao University, Qingdao 266071, China |
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Abstract COVID-19 is a highly contagious disease, which is mainly caused by infected persons with symptoms and thus needs to be prevented from spreading by a large number of control measures. The study on the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan will help to understand the transmission characteristics of COVID-19 and help to design and evaluate appropriate prevention and control measures. Based on the data of COVID-19 cases reported in Wuhan from January 20 to March 29, a SEAIC model including asymptomatic infected persons was established. The initial stage of the epidemic was divided into three stages of transmission. The least square method was used to estimate the corresponding characteristic parameters. The results showed that the R0 of the three transmission stages was 5.53, 4.023 and 0.016 respectively. The true proportion of asymptomatic infected is about 7.4%. With the use of the quarantine hospital, R0 quickly dropped below 1 and the epidemic was gradually brought under control.
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Received: 01 June 2020
Published: 21 December 2020
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