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| Analysis of Transmission Rate of P. Vivax Malaria in Anhui Province |
| BAI Di, ZHOU Wulüe, ZHAO Jijun
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| Institute of Complex Science, Qingdao 266071, China |
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Abstract The vector of p. vivax malaria, Anopheles sinensis, is still prevalent in China, but the study on transmission dynamics of p. vivax malaria is still limited. We took p. vivax malaria in Anhui province as an example, and estimated the mosquito biting rate, p. vivax malaria transmission rate and their seasonality. We further analyzed the factors affecting the seasonality in the transmission rate. The SIR-SI(Susceptible Infected Recovered-Susceptible Infected) human-mosquito coupled model was adopted for the transmission dynamics of p. vivax and the mosquito biting rate and the transmission rate over time were estimated. A multiple linear regression model was established to analyze the effects of temperature and rainfall on mosquito biting rate and p. vivax malaria transmission rate. Our results showed that: The mosquito biting rate and transmission rate of p. vivax malaria have significant annual seasonality (seasonal amplitude of 42.4%); The transmission rate of p. vivax malaria was significantly affected by temperature (p=7.23e11) and rainfall (p=0.004);The number of the Infected of p. vivax malaria not only had one year cyclic pattern, but also showed multi-year cyclic pattern due to long-term change in the number of the Susceptible.
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Received: 31 May 2020
Published: 28 December 2020
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