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| Construction and Analysis of a Modified SEIQRDP Propagation Model |
| YANG Zhongbaoa,b, LIU Zeshana, PAN Chunyana, ZHANG Dalina
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| a. School of Mathematics and Statistics;b. Key Laboratory of Complex Systems and Intelligent Optimization of Guizhou Province, Qiannan Normal University for Nationalities, Duyun 558000, China |
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Abstract The SEIQRDP propagation model has seven types of states: susceptible state, non susceptible state, exposed state, confirmed state, isolated state, cured state, and dead state. By introducing isolation control strategies, it was constructed a SEIQRDP_G transmission model, the number of susceptible populations that infected individuals come into contact with will decrease per unit time, protecting the population of susceptible individuals,which can better than a comprehensive open strategy. By introducing vaccine control strategies, four different modified SEIQRDP transmission models were constructed to improve the immune capacity of susceptible populations and reduce mortality rates. The model use the basic reproduction number, and the decision coefficient and median absolute error as evaluation indicators, the real epidemic data of the model in Changchun City were empirically analyzed. The experimental results indicate that the SEIQRDP_G transmission model is most suitable for practical epidemic data; the SEIQRDP_ Y_ 1 and the SEIQRDP_ Y2_ 2 propagation model have the lowest basic regeneration number; the determination coefficients of the SEIQRDP_Y2_1 and SEIQRDP propagation models are the least. Through the introduction of control strategies, the transmission mechanism of the epidemic was further characterized.
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Received: 08 May 2023
Published: 03 January 2025
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