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Nodes-set Mining of Express Logistics Network Based on the Key Player Problem-positive Model
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WU Qitao, LI Yuanting, WU Hailing, YANG Yunhao, WU Junqiang
Complex Systems and Complexity Science. 2024, 21 (4): 28-33.
DOI: 10.13306/j.1672-3813.2024.04.005
Aiming at the problem of nodes-set mining in express logistics network, this paper constructs DW-KPP-Pos (Directed Weighted-Key Players Problem-Positive) model based on KPP-Pos (Key Player Problem-Positive) and designs a heuristic algorithm to improve the efficiency of the model. The empirical analysis of China’s urban express logistics network shows that: The DW-KPP-Pos model with heuristic algorithm can efficiently mine “Maximum spread seeds group” in express logistics network. Including Shanghai, Chongqing, Guangzhou, Beijing, Jinhua and Hong Kong; The comparison of measurement results suggest that the propagation efficiency of nodes-set K mined by DW-KPP-Pos model is 0.59%, 0.88% and 6.19% higher than that of degree nodes-set Kdeg, PageRank nodes-set Kpag and betweenness centrality nodes-set Kbet respectively. In this paper, a new method of nodes-set mining considering maximum spread effect is proposed, which can provide technical support for the layout of express logistics infrastructure.
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Construction and Analysis of a Modified SEIQRDP Propagation Model
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YANG Zhongbao, LIU Zeshan, PAN Chunyan, ZHANG Dalin
Complex Systems and Complexity Science. 2024, 21 (4): 34-41.
DOI: 10.13306/j.1672-3813.2024.04.006
The SEIQRDP propagation model has seven types of states: susceptible state, non susceptible state, exposed state, confirmed state, isolated state, cured state, and dead state. By introducing isolation control strategies, it was constructed a SEIQRDP_G transmission model, the number of susceptible populations that infected individuals come into contact with will decrease per unit time, protecting the population of susceptible individuals,which can better than a comprehensive open strategy. By introducing vaccine control strategies, four different modified SEIQRDP transmission models were constructed to improve the immune capacity of susceptible populations and reduce mortality rates. The model use the basic reproduction number, and the decision coefficient and median absolute error as evaluation indicators, the real epidemic data of the model in Changchun City were empirically analyzed. The experimental results indicate that the SEIQRDP_G transmission model is most suitable for practical epidemic data; the SEIQRDP_ Y_ 1 and the SEIQRDP_ Y2_ 2 propagation model have the lowest basic regeneration number; the determination coefficients of the SEIQRDP_Y2_1 and SEIQRDP propagation models are the least. Through the introduction of control strategies, the transmission mechanism of the epidemic was further characterized.
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Decision Analysis of Supply Chain Operation under Carbon Emission Reduction Cost Sharing
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XU Haijuan, YE Chunming, LI Fang
Complex Systems and Complexity Science. 2024, 21 (4): 81-90.
DOI: 10.13306/j.1672-3813.2024.04.013
To investigate the impact of carbon emission cost sharing on supply chain decisions, four carbon emission cost sharing supply chain decision models for manufacturers and retailers are developed. The Stackelberg game is applied to solve the problem, and the four decision-making models are analyzed based on evolutionary game theory, and the equilibrium conditions of the evolutionary stable strategy of carbon emission reduction cost sharing are obtained. Research shows that manufacturers′ profits are directly proportional to the proportion of low-carbon investment cost sharing, and are first proportional and then inversely proportional to the proportion of low-carbon marketing cost sharing; Retailers’ profits decrease with the increase of low-carbon investment costs and marketing cost sharing ratio. When the proportion of low-carbon investment and marketing cost sharing, the coefficient of low-carbon investment and marketing cost, and the sensitivity coefficient of consumers to marketing efforts and carbon emissions reduction are within a certain range, the system will reach a stable strategy. Finally, based on the research findings, relevant suggestions are proposed, providing effective ideas for the sustainable development of low-carbon cost sharing businesses in the supply chain.
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Research on Differential Privacy Protection of Two-player Games Based on Reinforcement Learning
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MA Mingyang, YANG Hongyong, LIU Fei
Complex Systems and Complexity Science. 2024, 21 (4): 107-114.
DOI: 10.13306/j.1672-3813.2024.04.016
For the two-player game problem, on the basis of Q-learning algorithm, the state-value function is updated by using neural network parameter approximation, the adaptive gradient optimization algorithm is selected for parameter updating, and the behaviors of the two agents are regulated by the Nash equilibrium idea. At the same time, in order to improve the protection effect of the model, differential privacy protection is added to the results to ensure the security of the data in the process of the two-player games. Finally, the experimental results verify the usability of the algorithm, which is able to train two agents to reach their respective target points stably after multiple rounds.
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Single Intersection Path Planning Based on Local Game
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JIANG Nan, ZHAO Qinghai, XU Chong, DU Siyu
Complex Systems and Complexity Science. 2024, 21 (4): 126-133.
DOI: 10.13306/j.1672-3813.2024.04.018
Aiming at the problems of high collision rate and low traffic efficiency caused by conflict risk of intelligent vehicles in single intersection environment, a path planning algorithm based on local game algorithm is proposed. By establishing the intersection conflict risk model, the conflict risk is analyzed, and the conflict resolution method between vehicles and pedestrians is proposed. The local game theory is introduced to establish the profit function to evaluate the feasible decision, and the solution of the pure strategy Nash equilibrium under the constraint condition is obtained. The vehicle speed is planned, and the path planning of the intelligent vehicle is finally realized. The simulation results show that the proposed path planning algorithm improves the interaction success rate by 9.32% compared with the evolutionary game and cooperative game algorithm under different traffic flows, and the traffic efficiency increases by 33% on average, which can effectively alleviate the traffic pressure.
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Short-term Load Forecasting Considering VMD Residuals and Optimizing BiLSTM
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XIE Yuxuan, WANG Hongjun, YUE Youjun, ZHAO Hui
Complex Systems and Complexity Science. 2024, 21 (4): 149-156.
DOI: 10.13306/j.1672-3813.2024.04.021
This study proposes a new method to improve short-term load forecasting accuracy. The method is based on Variational Modal Decomposition (VMD) with consideration of VMD residuals and an Improved Northern Eagle Algorithm (INGO) optimized Bi-directional Long Short Term Memory (BiLSTM) network. The VMD is used to decompose historical load data into multiple eigenmode components (IMFs) and a residual quantity. The BiLSTM model is then constructed separately for each IMF and residual, as well as the associated meteorological parameters. To avoid the impact of poorly selected hyperparameters on prediction accuracy, the INGO algorithm optimizes the implied layer nodes, training times, and learning rates of the BiLSTM. Last but not least, the prediction results are superimposed to obtain the final results. By analyzing specific cases, this paper′s method has demonstrated a higher prediction precision when compared to alternative methods. This validation confirms the effectiveness of the method presented in this article.
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