Abstract：The reasons why there are summer transmission peaks in tropical area and subtropical area in east Asia are still unclear. This paper uses an agent-based modeling (ABM), to model influenza transmission dynamics. Our influenza transmission ABM model considers two transmission routes and the model is illustrated by the analysis of Hong Kong influenza transmission pattern. Results show that: 1) the summer peak of influenza transmission in Hong Kong can be caused by virus transmission through the fomite-mediated route; 2) under the seasonality influence of the absolute humidity, aerosol route and fomite-mediated route dominant transmission in winter and summer repectively; 3) two routes transmission model can be better used for influenza transmission control for different seasons.
杨公立, 赵继军. 基于AGENT的流感传播模型与分析——以香港流感模式为例[J]. 复杂系统与复杂性科学, 2015, 12(1): 74-79.
YANG Gongli, ZHAO Jijun. Agent-Based Modeling and Analysis of Influenza Transmission——Illustrated by Hong Kong Influenza Transmission Patterns[J]. Complex Systems and Complexity Science, 2015, 12(1): 74-79.
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