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复杂系统与复杂性科学  2026, Vol. 23 Issue (3): 152-160    DOI: 10.13306/j.1672-3813.2026.03.018
  研究前沿 本期目录 | 过刊浏览 | 高级检索 |
考虑多时间尺度特征的GRU-Transformer酒店入住率预测
付丽1, 王西琼2
1.太原师范学院经济与管理学院,山西 晋中 030619;
2.泸州职业技术学院文旅学院,四川 泸州 646600
The Hotel Occupancy Rate Forecasting Based on GRU-transformer Considering Multi-time Scale Features
FU Li1, WANG Xiqiong2
1. School of Economics and Management, Taiyuan Normal University, Jinzhong 030619, China;
2. College of Culture and Tourism, Luzhou Vocational and Technical College, Luzhou 646000, China
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摘要 针对当前酒店入住率预测问题中数据难获取,预测具有滞后性,挖掘数据周期性与连续性特征不充分的现状,提出一种考虑多时间尺度特征的GRU-Transformer混合深度学习方法。首先对年、月、日周期时间片段入住率数据特征矩阵进行建模,构建模型输入数据;然后构建Attention-GRU和Conv-Transformer模块相结合的并行计算结构,对数据周期性与连续性特征进行挖掘,融合特征后输出预测值;最后对2家酒店历史入住率数据进行参数调优以及消融与对比实验。实验表明:所提算法在预测精度上提升较大,同时能够充分满足时效性的时间要求,可用于酒店入住率数据实时预测,帮助酒店管理者及时调整经营战略,提升酒店竞争力。
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付丽
王西琼
关键词 酒店入住率预测深度学习GRUTransformer模型    
Abstract:In view of the current situation of difficult data acquisition, lagging forecasting and insufficient periodicity and continuity of data mining in hotel occupancy prediction, a hybrid deep learning method of GRU-Transformer considering multi-time scale features is proposed. First, model the occupancy rate data feature matrix of year, month and day cycle time segments, and construct the input data of the model. Then, a parallel computing structure combining Attention-GRU and Conv-Transformer modules is constructed to excavate the periodic and continuity characteristics of the data and output the predicted value after integrating the characteristics. Finally, the historical occupancy data of two hotels are optimized and the ablation and comparison experiments are carried out. Experiments show that the algorithm proposed in this paper can greatly improve the prediction accuracy, and can fully meet the time requirement of timeliness. It can be used for real-time prediction of hotel occupancy data, help hotel managers timely adjust business strategy and improve hotel competitiveness.
Key wordshotel    occupancy rate forecast    deep learning    GRU    transformer model
收稿日期: 2024-07-09      出版日期: 2026-07-14
ZTFLH:  TP183  
  F59  
基金资助:山西省哲学社会科学规划课题(2022YY131);山西省回国留学人员科研资助项目(2021-147)
作者简介: 付 丽(1988-),女,山西大同人,博士,讲师,主要研究方向为消费者行为分析等。
引用本文:   
付丽, 王西琼. 考虑多时间尺度特征的GRU-Transformer酒店入住率预测[J]. 复杂系统与复杂性科学, 2026, 23(3): 152-160.
FU Li, WANG Xiqiong. The Hotel Occupancy Rate Forecasting Based on GRU-transformer Considering Multi-time Scale Features[J]. Complex Systems and Complexity Science, 2026, 23(3): 152-160.
链接本文:  
https://fzkx.qdu.edu.cn/CN/10.13306/j.1672-3813.2026.03.018      或      https://fzkx.qdu.edu.cn/CN/Y2026/V23/I3/152
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