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基于移动终端上网数据的移动模式分析及轨迹预测

  • 卢扬 ,
  • 赵志丹 ,
  • 蔡世民
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  • 电子科技大学计算机科学与工程学院,成都 611731
卢扬(1991-),女,江西吉安人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为复杂网络理论应用于大规模数据挖掘。

收稿日期: 2014-09-25

  修回日期: 2014-12-30

  网络出版日期: 2026-06-22

基金资助

国家自然科学基金(91024026,61004102);中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金(ZYGX2011YB024、ZYGX2012J075)

Mobility Pattern Analysis and Trajectory Prediction Using Mobile GPRS Data

  • LU Yang ,
  • ZHAO Zhidan ,
  • CAI Shimin
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  • School of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, 611731,China

Received date: 2014-09-25

  Revised date: 2014-12-30

  Online published: 2026-06-22

摘要

基于某城市用户移动终端使用某运营商流量上网产生的数据分析用户移动模式及轨迹预测。实证发现个体上网时的移动行为具有阵发性、异质性、弱时间规律性以及短时间内的地点停留特性。基于实证结果,本文提出了动态贝叶斯网络、基于相似度的马尔科夫模型等多种轨迹预测模型及它们的混合模型,并取得了较好的预测结果。

本文引用格式

卢扬 , 赵志丹 , 蔡世民 . 基于移动终端上网数据的移动模式分析及轨迹预测[J]. 复杂系统与复杂性科学, 2015 , 12(2) : 53 -59 . DOI: 10.13306/j.1672-3813.2015.02.008

Abstract

In this article, we analyzed users′ mobility patterns and proposed several predictors to solve the next location prediction problem with users′ mobile GPRS data. It is found that individual′s mobile behaviors are bursting, heterogeneous, weakly regular in temporal-spacial aspect, and individuals tend to stay in the same location in a short interval time. Furthermore, based on these empirical results, a blending model is developed to improve the prediction accuracy, overcomingall models with standalone feature.

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