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复杂系统与复杂性科学  2015, Vol. 12 Issue (2): 53-59    DOI: 10.13306/j.1672-3813.2015.02.008
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基于移动终端上网数据的移动模式分析及轨迹预测
卢扬, 赵志丹, 蔡世民
电子科技大学计算机科学与工程学院,成都 611731
Mobility Pattern Analysis and Trajectory Prediction Using Mobile GPRS Data
LU Yang, ZHAO Zhidan, CAI Shimin
School of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, 611731,China
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摘要 基于某城市用户移动终端使用某运营商流量上网产生的数据分析用户移动模式及轨迹预测。实证发现个体上网时的移动行为具有阵发性、异质性、弱时间规律性以及短时间内的地点停留特性。基于实证结果,本文提出了动态贝叶斯网络、基于相似度的马尔科夫模型等多种轨迹预测模型及它们的混合模型,并取得了较好的预测结果。
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卢扬
赵志丹
蔡世民
关键词 人类动力学移动计算移动模式分析轨迹预测    
Abstract:In this article, we analyzed users′ mobility patterns and proposed several predictors to solve the next location prediction problem with users′ mobile GPRS data. It is found that individual′s mobile behaviors are bursting, heterogeneous, weakly regular in temporal-spacial aspect, and individuals tend to stay in the same location in a short interval time. Furthermore, based on these empirical results, a blending model is developed to improve the prediction accuracy, overcomingall models with standalone feature.
Key wordshuman dynamics    mobile computing    mobility pattern analysis    trajectory prediction
收稿日期: 2014-09-25      出版日期: 2026-06-22
ZTFLH:  N94  
  O59  
基金资助:国家自然科学基金(91024026,61004102);中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金(ZYGX2011YB024、ZYGX2012J075)
通讯作者: 蔡世民(1981-),男,江苏苏州人,博士,副教授,主要研究方向为复杂系统和复杂网络理论及应用,大规模数据挖掘和时间序列分析。   
作者简介: 卢扬(1991-),女,江西吉安人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为复杂网络理论应用于大规模数据挖掘。
引用本文:   
卢扬, 赵志丹, 蔡世民. 基于移动终端上网数据的移动模式分析及轨迹预测[J]. 复杂系统与复杂性科学, 2015, 12(2): 53-59.
LU Yang, ZHAO Zhidan, CAI Shimin. Mobility Pattern Analysis and Trajectory Prediction Using Mobile GPRS Data[J]. Complex Systems and Complexity Science, 2015, 12(2): 53-59.
链接本文:  
https://fzkx.qdu.edu.cn/CN/10.13306/j.1672-3813.2015.02.008      或      https://fzkx.qdu.edu.cn/CN/Y2015/V12/I2/53
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