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| Analysis of Transmission Rate of Measles in Qingdao |
| FANG Haixu, CHEN Ji, ZHAO Jijun
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| Institute of Complex Science, Qingdao University, Qingdao 266071 |
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Abstract In the recent decade, measles vaccination coverage rate in China has reached a very high level (more than 99%), however China is still one of the countries with the highest measles incidents. Eliminating measles is an arduous and important task, requiring a deep understanding of measles transmission. However, study on transmission dynamics of measles in China is very limited. In this paper, we took measles in Qingdao as an example to estimate its transmission rate and transmission seasonality for two stages: pre-vaccination era (19511964) and recent 15 years (20002014). The Time Series Susceptible Infected Recovered (TSIR) model was used to estimate the measles transmission rate over time. The results showed that the measles transmission rate in Qingdao had significant annual seasonality in both stages. In recent 15 years, the seasonal peak of the measles transmission rate in Qingdao has obviously shifted from December to February, when Chinese usually celebrate Chinese New Year. The transmission seasonality for measles in Qingdao is far greater than the seasonality of measles transmission in other countries.
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Received: 22 January 2018
Published: 10 January 2019
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