|
|
|
| Construction and Research of Infectious Disease Model Based on COVID-19 Transmission Characteristics |
| ZHU Maochang, BIN Sheng, SUN Gengxin
|
| School of Computer Science and Technology, Qingdao University, Qingdao 266071, China |
|
|
|
|
Abstract In order to better reveal the transmission mechanism of COVID-19, this paper proposes the SEAIHR dynamic model by analyzing the transmission characteristics of COVID-19, considering the self-healing of the hidden lurks and the early isolation of the lurks, introducing “h hospitalization isolation”, “recessive cure”, considering the change of prevention and control intensity, and introducing “morbidity status”. Using the real epidemic data and considering the changes of parameters in different stages, a multi model comparative test was conducted. The experimental results showed that the fitting and prediction accuracy of the SEAIHR model was significantly improved, and the fitting error was 34.4%~72.8% lower than that of the classical model in the early and middle stages of the epidemic, providing reference and guidance for epidemic prevention and control.
|
|
Received: 27 April 2022
Published: 21 July 2023
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
