|
|
|
| Agent-Based Modeling and Analysis of Influenza Transmission——Illustrated by Hong Kong Influenza Transmission Patterns |
| YANG Gongli, ZHAO Jijun
|
| Institute of Complexity Science, Qingdao University, Qingdao 266071 |
|
|
|
|
Abstract The reasons why there are summer transmission peaks in tropical area and subtropical area in east Asia are still unclear. This paper uses an agent-based modeling (ABM), to model influenza transmission dynamics. Our influenza transmission ABM model considers two transmission routes and the model is illustrated by the analysis of Hong Kong influenza transmission pattern. Results show that: 1) the summer peak of influenza transmission in Hong Kong can be caused by virus transmission through the fomite-mediated route; 2) under the seasonality influence of the absolute humidity, aerosol route and fomite-mediated route dominant transmission in winter and summer repectively; 3) two routes transmission model can be better used for influenza transmission control for different seasons.
|
|
Received: 28 April 2014
Published: 22 June 2026
|
|
|
|
|
|
[1] 王革非,李康生. 新世纪流感大流行的思考[J].生物化学与生物物理进展,2009,36(8): 945-949.
Wang Gefei,Li Kangsheng. Origins and views of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic[J]. Progress in Biochemistry and Biophysics, 2009, 36(8):945-949.
[2] Belshe R B.The origins of pandemic influenza-lessons from the 1918 virus[J].New England Journal of Medicine, 2005, 353(21):2209-2211.
[3] Kawaoka Y, Krauss S, Webster R G. Avian-to-human transmission of the PB1 gene of influenza A viruses in the 1957 and 1968 pandemics[J]. Journal of Virology, 1989, 63(11): 4603-4608.
[4] Mueller M.Influenza vaccine:a long way from Hong Kong[J].Science, 1968, 162(854):651.
[5] Simosen L,Clarke M J,Schonberger L B,et a1.Pandemic versus epidemic influenza mortality, a pattern of changing age distribution[J]. Infectious Disease, 1998, 178(1): 53-60.
[6] Shrestha S, Foxman B, Weinberger D M, et al. Identifying the interaction between influenza and pneumococcal pneumonia using incidence data[J]. Science Translational Medicine, 2013, 5(191):191ra84.
[7] Lowen A, Palese P. Transmission of influenza virus in temperate zones is predominantly by aerosol, in the tropics by contact[J]. Epidemiology, 2009, 8.
[8] Sheng L. Environmentally mediated transmission models for influenza and the relationships with meteorological indices[D]. The University of Michigan,2011.
[9] Shu Y L,Fang L Q,de Vlas S J,et al.Dual seasonal patterns for influenza,China[J].Emerging Infectious Diseases, 2010, 16(4): 725-726.
[10] Moura F E, Perdigao A C, Siqueira M M. Seasonality of influenza in the tropics: a distinct pattern in northeastern Brazil[J]. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 2009, 81(1):180-183.
[11] Shanman J, Kohn M. Absolute humidity modulates influenza survival, transmission, and seasonality[J]. PNAS, 2009, 106(9):3243-3248.
[12] Railsback S F, Grimm V. Agent-Based and Individual-Based Modeling: a Practical Introduction[M]. New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 2012.
[13] 刘慧杰. 多主体模拟的建筑学应用——以netlogo平台为例[J]. 建筑设计研究,2009, 27(8):99-103.
Liu Huijie. Plication of multi-agent simulation on architectural researches: taking netlogo platform as an example[J]. 2009, 27(8):99-103.
[14] 李艳,吴介军. 基于Netlogo的高校保密项目管理仿真分析[J]. 计算机技术与发展,2010,21(4):164-168.
Li Yan, Wu Jiejun. Netlogo-based simulation and analysis of college confidential project management[J]. Computer Technology and Development, 2010, 21(4):164-168.
[15] Epstein JM, Cummings D, Chakravarty S, et al. Toward a Containment Strategy for Smallpox Bioterror: an Individual-Based Computational Approach[M]. Washington D C: Brookings Institution Press, 2004.
[16] Ira M. Longini, Jr., et al. Containing pandemic influenza at the source[J]. Science, 2005, 309(5737):1083.
[17] Dushoff J, Plotkin J B, Levin S A, et al. Dynamical resonance can account for seasonality of influenza epidemics[J]. PNAS, 2004, 101(48):16915-16916. |
|
|
|
