|
|
|
| Modeling and Simulation of Interruption Risk Propagation Trend in Complex Supply Chain Network |
| WANG Hongchun, ZHOU Zixiang
|
| School of Urban Economics and Management, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Beijing 100044, China |
|
|
|
|
Abstract The current research on supply chain risk propagation has limitations in the description of enterprise status setting and the relationship between enterprises. A cellular space is mapped to represent the supply chain network, fully considering the differences in operating capabilities of node enterprises under interruption risks and the mutual influence of neighboring cells. The improved risk transmission rule and a simulation model based on cellular automata and SEIRD infectious disease models are constructed. According to the results of multi-scenario simulation and research expansion, the potential reasons for the advancement of supply chain network disruption risk propagation process are analyzed, as well as the influence of market heat, market competition degree, risk early warning and control, and government macro-control on the propagation trend. The research conclusions can provide strategic reference for supply chain disruption risk management decision-making.
|
|
Received: 02 November 2023
Published: 09 October 2025
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
