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| Study of Early Warning Signals for Disease Re-emergence Considering Population Behavior |
| WANG Xueqing, ZHOU Rui, ZHAO Jijun
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| Department of Automation, Qingdao University, Qingdao 266071, China |
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Abstract This study aimed to explore the performance of Early Warning Signals (EWS) in predicting the re-emergence of infectious diseases under the influence of vaccination behavior in dynamic systems. First, we established an infectious disease model considering population behavior. Then, we used the model simulation data to calculate different statistical indicators, including mean, variance, autocorrelation coefficient, incremental variance, skewness, and residuals, which will be used as EWS. Finally, we used the Receiver Operating Characteristic curves(ROC)to evaluate the performance of these indicators. Autocorrelation coefficient, variance, mean, and incremental variance demonstrated favorable performance. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of EWS in detecting the transitions of infectious disease systems and hold particular significance in the study of early warning signals for disease outbreaks.
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Received: 31 October 2023
Published: 10 December 2025
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