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Complexity:An Important Direction for Thinking Pattem Change
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CHEN Yu
Complex Systems and Complexity Science. 2016, 13 (4): 1-7.
DOI: 10.13306/j.1672-3813.2016.04.001
The Complexity Study is a new field in the Science. It provided a new thingking approach for researchers. The Trandisional Thingking, as its typical represantive, the Newtonian Mechanics, always ignored the complexity of real world. The main shortage of tranditinal thinking is oversimplification, absolute thinking and ignore the role of time. The Complexity Study paid more attention on the complexity of the world.What caused the Complexity? How to deal with the Complexity? From six different perspectives, this paper provided a framwork for understanding the Complexity. The six perspectives are: the Vergeness of Convepts, Quantitive Diversity, Multi-perspectives, Hierarchy feature, Role of the Time, Role of the Information. Complexity is not a new Grant Narrative, it has rejected any final theoritical frame, instead it provided further direction for understanding the complexity and further exploration.
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The Analysis for the Vulnerability of the Interdependent and Interconnected Network of Networks Based on the Correlation Degree Distribution Functions
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JIN Weixin, SONG Ping, LIU Guozhu
Complex Systems and Complexity Science. 2016, 13 (4): 8-17.
DOI: 10.13306/j.1672-3813.2016.04.002
In this paper, research status quo on the cascading vulnerability of interdependent networks is reviewed firstly. Secondly,its progress and unsolved problem are analyzed.Based on this,the blind area of the present interdependent networks vulnerability research—correlation mechanism and correlation principle of interdependent networks are deeply analyzed and studied,and the vulnerability analysis models which based on the correlation degree distribution functions are built,at the same time,six criteria of interdependent networks vulnerability evaluation are summed up.Lastly,the conclusion and proposal are put forward.
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A Mechanism of Generating Power-Law and Other Distributions
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LI Heling, WANG Juanjuan, YANG Bin, SHEN Hongjun
Complex Systems and Complexity Science. 2016, 13 (4): 18-25.
DOI: 10.13306/j.1672-3813.2016.04.003
For resolving the contradiction between power-law distribution playing an increasingly important role in investigation of complex systems and it has not been derived out up to now, in this paper the maximal entropy principle and the idea of incomplete statistics were utilized. Firstly, the detail of deriving the equal probability hypothesis from Shannon entropy and maximum entropy principle was showed. Then three different exponential factors were introduced in equations about the normalization condition, statistical average and Shannon entropy respectively. Based on the Shannon entropy and maximum entropy principle, three different probability distribution functions, such as exponential function, power function and the product form consisting of power function and exponential function, were derived out. Which demonstrated the maximum entropy principle was a path which may lead to different distribution functions.
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Simulation Study of Multi-Preferences and Community Structure on the Emergence of Cooperation
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FAN Ruguo, CUI Yingying, ZHANG Yingqing
Complex Systems and Complexity Science. 2016, 13 (4): 26-34.
DOI: 10.13306/j.1672-3813.2016.04.004
Considering the high concentration, scale-free and “community structure” of social networks, according to “Prisoner's Dilemma” game, we establish an evolutionary game model for complex social networks based on multi-preferences, apply the node influence to the rule of game strategy update innovatively, and use Matlab platform to simulate. Besides, we analyze the multi-preferences, “community structure” and inter-community links to reveal the influence and inherent mechanism of cooperative emergence in social networks systematically from both macroscopic and microcosmic perspective through contrast simulation experiments. It is shown that community structure characteristic under multi-preferences affects the heterogeneous expectation level of agents; “community structure” can promote the emergence of cooperation; the influence of inter-community links to cooperative emergence has a relation with community scale.
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Forecast on China’s Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions Driven by Micro Innovation
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WU Jing, WANG Zheng, ZHU Qianting, GONG Yi
Complex Systems and Complexity Science. 2016, 13 (4): 68-79.
DOI: 10.13306/j.1672-3813.2016.04.010
This paper integrates input-output model with agent-based simulation, in which an input-output model with 17 sectors is established at the macro economy level, and an agent-based model is developed simulating firms’ innovations in each sector at the micro economy level. The emergency of industrial structure evolution,energy consumption change and carbon emission change at the macro level are driven by innovations of firm agents. Results show that due to the uncertainty of innovation, the peak years of energy and emission are also uncertain. The energy peak year will subject to a normal distribution from 2025 to 2036; while the distribution of emission peak year is also identified as a normal distribution from 2024 to 2033. The year with the maximum probability for energy peak will be 2031 with the probability of 23.57%; and 2029 will be the year with the maximum probability 33.51% for emission peak. Taking the average of 50 simulations, it is indicated that the energy peak will be 5146Mtce in 2029, and the emission peak will be 2.7GtC in 2029.
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Innovation Diffusion Model Based on the Local Interaction and Global Broadcasting
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YU Mingliang, HAN Jingti, LIN Jianhong, LIU Jianguo
Complex Systems and Complexity Science. 2016, 13 (4): 90-95.
DOI: 10.13306/j.1672-3813.2016.04.012
In this paper, we present an innovation diffusion model based on the local interaction and global broadcasting, which considers both the interaction between each node and the influence of the public media during the innovation spreading process. The experimental results show that as the effect of the global broadcasting is limited, the local interaction relationships would play an important role in the innovation diffusion. Furthermore, the simulation results on for real networks show that under the limited influence of public media, the improved method which integrates the network structure and innovation diffusion process can evaluate the node influence in innovation diffusion accurately. Comparing with degree, closeness and K-shell method, the largest improved ratio could reach 39.19%, 35.61% and 33.03% respectively.
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