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复杂系统与复杂性科学  2020, Vol. 17 Issue (4): 1-8    DOI: 10.13306/j.1672-3813.2020.04.001
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COVID-19疫情防控需要社区监测及接触者追踪并重
赵子鸣1, 勾文沙1, 高晓惠1,2, 陈清华1,3,4
1.北京师范大学系统科学学院,北京 100875;
2.山西财经大学统计学院,太原 030006;
3.新英格兰复杂系统研究所,马萨诸塞州 剑桥 02139;
4.布兰迪斯大学化学学院,马萨诸塞州 沃尔瑟姆 02453
Intervention and Control of COVID-19 Requires both Community-Based Monitoring and Contact Tracing
ZHAO Ziming1, GOU Wensha1, GAO Xiaohui1,2, CHEN Qinghua1,3,4
1. School of Systems Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;
2. School of Statistics, Shanxi University of Finance and Economics, Taiyuan 030006, China;
3. New England Complex Systems Institute, Cambridge 02139, American;
4. Department of Chemistry, Brandeis University, Waltham 02453, American
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摘要 证据表明,COVID-19疫情中存在大量无症状感染者,这是医学研究者的新问题,也对非医学防控干预提出了新的挑战。基于具有周期性边界的SEIR空间传播模型,该研究通过多主体模型来模拟病原体在网络上的传播及不同干预措施后的发展演变。模拟表明,当存在一定程度的无症状感染者时,单独的社区监测或接触者追踪均不能取得好的效果。只有两种措施配合实施,才能最终遏制病毒蔓延,此结果对于当前世界各国的疫情防控工作具有指导意义。
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赵子鸣
勾文沙
高晓惠
陈清华
关键词 无症状感染者社区监测接触者追踪疫情防控多主体系统SEIR模型    
Abstract:There is growing evidence that the current worldwide epidemic of COVID-19 has many asymptomatic infections. This raises new questions for the study of medical researchers, and it is also new challenge for non-medical interventions. Based on the SEIR model with periodic boundary, this study simulates the actual spread of pathogens and the interventions by multi-agent simulation. The simulations show that epidemic prevention and control can be feasible only with the joint intervention of the two measures when there are asymptomatic infections, one cannot leave without. Our results are of guiding importance for the prevention and control of epidemic situation in the world.
Key wordsasymptomatic infection    community-based monitoring    contact tracing    epidemic prevention and control    multi-agent systems    SEIR model
收稿日期: 2020-05-26      出版日期: 2020-12-21
ZTFLH:  TP391.9  
  N949  
基金资助:国家自然科学基金(71701018, 61673070);教育部人文社科基金(20YJAZH010)
通讯作者: 陈清华(1976-),男,湖北当阳人,博士,教授,主要研究方向为社会经济系统复杂性、人类行为建模等。   
作者简介: 赵子鸣(1996-),男,山西太原人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为复杂网络、社会经济系统。
引用本文:   
赵子鸣, 勾文沙, 高晓惠, 陈清华. COVID-19疫情防控需要社区监测及接触者追踪并重[J]. 复杂系统与复杂性科学, 2020, 17(4): 1-8.
ZHAO Ziming, GOU Wensha, GAO Xiaohui, CHEN Qinghua. Intervention and Control of COVID-19 Requires both Community-Based Monitoring and Contact Tracing. Complex Systems and Complexity Science, 2020, 17(4): 1-8.
链接本文:  
http://fzkx.qdu.edu.cn/CN/10.13306/j.1672-3813.2020.04.001      或      http://fzkx.qdu.edu.cn/CN/Y2020/V17/I4/1
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[1] 周武略, 白迪, 赵继军. 武汉市发生的新冠病毒肺炎建模研究分析[J]. 复杂系统与复杂性科学, 2020, 17(4): 58-65.
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