武汉市发生的新冠病毒肺炎建模研究分析

doi:10.13306/j.1672-3813.2020.04.007

复杂系统与复杂性科学

2020, Vol. 17

Issue (4): 58-65 DOI: 10.13306/j.1672-3813.2020.04.007

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武汉市发生的新冠病毒肺炎建模研究分析

周武略, 白迪, 赵继军

青岛大学复杂性科学研究所,山东青岛 266071

Modeling and Analysis of COVID-19 in Wuhan

ZHOU Wulüe, BAI Di, ZHAO Jijun

Institute of Complex Science,Qingdao University, Qingdao 266071, China

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摘要新型冠状病毒是一种传染性极强的传染病,主要由有症状感染者促使传播,需要采取大量的控制措施阻止其蔓延。对武汉疫情的研究有助于深入认识新冠的传播特性,帮助制定、调整合理的防控措施。根据武汉2020年1月20日至3月29日的病例报告数据,建立包含无症状感染者在内的SEAIC模型。将疫情初期划分为3个传播阶段,应用最小二乘法估算相应的特征参数。结果发现,3个传播阶段的R₀分别为5.53、4.023、0.016。真实无症状感染者比例约为7.4%。“方舱医院”的投入使用,使得R₀迅速下降至1以下,疫情逐步得到控制。

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关键词 ：新型冠状病毒肺炎, 基本再生数, 无症状感染者

Abstract：COVID-19 is a highly contagious disease, which is mainly caused by infected persons with symptoms and thus needs to be prevented from spreading by a large number of control measures. The study on the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan will help to understand the transmission characteristics of COVID-19 and help to design and evaluate appropriate prevention and control measures. Based on the data of COVID-19 cases reported in Wuhan from January 20 to March 29, a SEAIC model including asymptomatic infected persons was established. The initial stage of the epidemic was divided into three stages of transmission. The least square method was used to estimate the corresponding characteristic parameters. The results showed that the R₀ of the three transmission stages was 5.53, 4.023 and 0.016 respectively. The true proportion of asymptomatic infected is about 7.4%. With the use of the quarantine hospital, R0 quickly dropped below 1 and the epidemic was gradually brought under control.

Key words： COVID-19 basic reproduction ratio asymptomatic

收稿日期: 2020-06-01 出版日期: 2020-12-21

ZTFLH:	R512.5
	R181

基金资助:山东自然科学基金(ZR2018MH037)

通讯作者: 赵继军(1966-),女,山东青岛人,博士,教授,主要研究方向为传染病动态传播。

作者简介: 周武略(1993-),男,广西柳州人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为流行病学动态特性。

引用本文:

周武略, 白迪, 赵继军. 武汉市发生的新冠病毒肺炎建模研究分析[J]. 复杂系统与复杂性科学, 2020, 17(4): 58-65.
ZHOU Wulüe, BAI Di, ZHAO Jijun. Modeling and Analysis of COVID-19 in Wuhan. Complex Systems and Complexity Science, 2020, 17(4): 58-65.

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http://fzkx.qdu.edu.cn/CN/10.13306/j.1672-3813.2020.04.007 或 http://fzkx.qdu.edu.cn/CN/Y2020/V17/I4/58

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