Analysis and Research on Influence of Countries in Agricultural Products Trade Network
ZHAN Xiuxiu1,2, YE Tao1, LIU Chuang1, LIU Xuemei1
1. Alibaba Research Center for Complexity Sciences, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121, China; 2. College of Media and International Culture, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China
Abstract:Agricultural product trade is an important channel to achieve the global "zero" hunger sustainable development goal. In the accelerated evolution stage of world changes, there is an urgent need to conduct research on the layout of trade networks and the influence of node countries. This article studies the evolution of agricultural product trade based on complex network theory and measures a country's influence through network efficiency. The results show that: 1) The agricultural product trade network is becoming increasingly efficient and close. 2) The influence of a node country is closely related to its comprehensive strength; countries with great influence have strong import and export intensity, and there is a positive correlation between a country's export intensity and its import intensity. 3) Agricultural product trade is mainly dominated by a few large countries, which will exacerbate the vulnerability of global agricultural product supply under unstable factors such as natural disasters or geopolitics.
詹秀秀, 叶涛, 刘闯, 刘雪梅. 农产品贸易网络中国家影响力分析与研究[J]. 复杂系统与复杂性科学, 2025, 22(1): 26-32.
ZHAN Xiuxiu, YE Tao, LIU Chuang, LIU Xuemei. Analysis and Research on Influence of Countries in Agricultural Products Trade Network[J]. Complex Systems and Complexity Science, 2025, 22(1): 26-32.
[1] COLGLAZIER W. Sustainable development agenda: 2030[J]. Science, 2015, 349(6252): 1048-1050. [2] FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, et al. The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2021:Transforming Food Systems for Food Security, Improved Nutrition and Affordable Healthy Diets for All[M]. Rome, Italy: FAO, 2021. [3] MC CARTHY U, UYSAL I, BADIA-MELIS R, et al. Global food security-Issues, challenges and technological solutions[J]. Trends in Food Science & Technology, 2018, 77: 11-20. [4] KOPITTKE P M, MENZIES N W, WANG P, et al. Soil and the intensification of agriculture for global food security[J]. Environment International, 2019, 132: 105078. [5] LABORDE D, MARTIN W, SWINNEN J, et al. COVID-19 risks to global food security[J]. Science, 2020, 369(6503): 500-502. [6] WANG Y, BOURI E, FAREED Z, et al. Geopolitical risk and the systemic risk in the commodity markets under the war in Ukraine[J]. Finance Research Letters, 2022, 49: 103066. [7] MACDONALD G K, BRAUMAN K A, SUN S, et al. Rethinking agricultural trade relationships in an era of globalization[J]. BioScience, 2015, 65(3): 275-289. [8] WOOD S A, SMITH M R, FANZO J, et al. Trade and the equitability of global food nutrient distribution[J]. Nature Sustainability, 2018, 1(1): 34-37. [9] PORKKA M, KUMMU M, SIEBERT S, et al. From food insufficiency towards trade dependency: a historical analysis of global food availability[J]. PloS One, 2013, 8(12): e82714. [10] SUWEIS S, CARR J A, MARITAN A, et al. Resilience and reactivity of global food security[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2015, 112(22): 6902-6907. [11] ALBERT R, BARABÁSI A-L. Statistical mechanics of complex networks[J]. Reviews of Modern Physics, 2002, 74(1): 47. [12] 段文奇, 刘宝全, 季建华. 国际贸易网络拓扑结构的演化[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2008, 28(10): 71-75. DUAN W Q, LIU B Q, JI J H. Topological structure evolution of world trade network[J]. Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice,2008, 28(10): 71-75. [13] 种照辉, 覃成林.“一带一路”贸易网络结构及其影响因素——基于网络分析方法的研究[J]. 国际经贸探索, 2017, 33(5): 16-28. CHONG Z H, TAN C L. Thetrade network structure of “one belt one road” and its influence factors: a study based on analytic network process[J]. International Economics and Trade Research, 2017, 33(5): 16-28. [14] 马述忠, 任婉婉, 吴国杰. 一国农产品贸易网络特征及其对全球价值链分工的影响——基于社会网络分析视角[J]. 管理世界,2016,(3):60-72. MA S Z, REN WW, WU G J. The Characteristics of agricultura trade network and its effects on the global value chain division: a study based on social network analysis[J]. Management World, 2016(3): 60-72. [15] 王祥, 强文丽, 牛叔文, 等. 全球农产品贸易网络及其演化分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2018, 33(6): 940-953. WANG X, QIANG W L, NIU S W, et al. Analysis onglobal agricultural trade network and its evolution[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2018, 33(6): 940-953. [16] ALMOG A, BIRD R, GARLASCHELLI D. Enhanced gravity model of trade: reconciling macroeconomic and network models[J]. Frontiers in Physics, 2019, 7: 55. [17] PUMA M J, BOSE S, CHON S Y, et al. Assessing the evolving fragility of the global food system[J]. Environmental Research Letters, 2015, 10(2): 024007. [18] PORFIRIO L L, NEWTH D, FINNIGAN J J, et al. Economic shifts in agricultural production and trade due to climate change[DB/OL]. [2023-05-30].https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-018-0164-y.[19] TORREGGIANI S, MANGIONI G, PUMA M J, et al. Identifying the community structure of the food-trade international multi-network[J]. Environmental Research Letters, 2018, 13(5): 054026. [20] FAIR K R, BAUCH C T, ANAND M. Dynamics of the global wheat trade network and resilience to shocks[J]. Scientific Reports, 2017, 7(1): 1-14. [21] WANG C, ZHAO L, LIM M K, et al. Structure of the global plastic waste trade network and the impact of China’ s import Ban[J]. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 2020, 153: 104591. [22] 王杏. 基于复杂网络的农产品供应链建模与网络风险传播研究[D]. 长春:吉林大学, 2017. WANG X. Agri-foodsupply chain modeling and risk propagation based on complex network theory[D]. Changchun: Jilin University, 2017. [23] DONG C, YIN Q, LANG K J, et al. Competition and transmission evolution of global food trade: a case study of wheat[J]. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 2018, 509: 998-1008. [24] KONAR M, DALIN C, SUWEIS S, et al. Water for food: the global virtual water trade network[DB/OL]. [2023-05-30]. https:/doi.org/10.1029/2010WR010307. [25] DALIN C, KONAR M, HANASAKI N, et al. Evolution of the global virtual water trade network[J]. Proceedings of the National academy of Sciences, 2012, 109(16): 5989-5994. [26] XIE W J, WEI N, ZHOU W X. Evolving efficiency and robustness of the international oil trade network[J]. Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment, 2021(10): 103401. [27] CUSTOMS CO-OPERATION COUNCIL,US CUSTOMS SERVICE. Harmonized Commodity Description and Coding System: Explanatory Notes[M]. Washington, DC: US Department of the Treasury, Customs Service, 1986. [28] REN Y, LIU G, PU G, et al. Spatiotemporal evolution of the international plastic resin trade network[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2020, 276: 124221. [29] WATTS D J, STROGATZ S H. Collective dynamics of ‘small-world’ networks[J]. Nature, 1998, 393(6684): 440-442. [30] LATORA V, MARCHIORI M. Efficient behavior of small-world networks[J]. Physical Review Letters, 2001, 87(19): 198701. [31] KENDALL M G. A new measure of rank correlation[J]. Biometrika, 1938, 30(1/2): 81-93.