Abstract：This paper analyzes the influence of seasonality of infection rate and floating population on measles dynamics in Henan province, compares and analyzes the seasonal variation pattern of measles infection rate, and provides theoretical support for the future prevention and control of measles in China. In this paper, a SIR model including the seasonal ladder model of migrant population and infection rate was established, and the parameters in the model were estimated using the Markov Monte Carlo method, the infection rate of local mobile population and the migrant population outside the province was compared, and the influence of different infection rate models on transmission dynamics was analyzed. In the measles transmission dynamics in Henan, the influence of migrant population outside the province on measles transmission dynamics was greater than that of the local population, and the seasonal change pattern of infection rate in Henan was more in line with the step change, and the influence of migrant population on measles transmission dynamics in Henan was higher than that of seasonal infection rate. In the future measles prevention and control work, we should strengthen the monitoring of the migrant population and reasonably choose the time and population of immunization.
韩世峰, 翟夏菲, 赵继军. 传染率季节性和流动人口对麻疹动态的影响[J]. 复杂系统与复杂性科学, 2024, 21(1): 139-144.
HAN Shifeng, ZHAI Xiafei, ZHAO Jijun. Effects of Seasonal Transmission and Floating Population on the Dynamics of Measles[J]. Complex Systems and Complexity Science, 2024, 21(1): 139-144.
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