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| Transmission Rate Seasonality of Hand Foot and Mouth Disease and Its Relationship with Population Flux |
| CHEN Ji, FAN Xuezhi, ZHAO Jijun
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| Institute of Complex Science, Qingdao University, Qingdao 266071, China |
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Abstract In this paper, we estimated the transmission rate seasonality of hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Anhui province, and analyzed the relationship between the population flux and the transmission rate seasonality of HFMD. The transmission rate of HFMD was estimated by using TSIR model and the simple mass model; the transmission rate seasonality of HFMD was analyzed. The relationship between the population flux (transport volume of highway passenger) and the transmission rate seasonality of HFMD was analyzed by using linear regression model. Results of our two models show that the transmission rate of HFMD has annual seasonality, the peek of transmission rate occurred in February every year during the Spring Festival. The annual transmission rate seasonality was because of the population flux in Anhui province. These results can help to analyze dynamic transmission characteristics of HFMD and can better explain the cyclic pattern of HFMD report case.
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Received: 18 January 2017
Published: 10 January 2019
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