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| Analysis of Transmission Rate of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in Provinces, Autonomous Regions and Municipalities of China |
| WANG Yanfen, WANG Xufeng, ZHAO Jijun
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| Institute of Complexity Science, Qingdao University, Qingdao 266071, China |
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Abstract Based on the HFMD reported cases in 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities of China, this paper estimated the transmission rate of HFMD and its seasonality, then analyzed possible related factors. The Time Series Susceptible Infected Recovered (TSIR) model was established to examine the HFMD transmission rate, and the parameters in the TSIR model were estimated by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). We also established a linear regression model to analyze the effects of climate factors, school terms and the spring festival travel rush on the transmission rate of HFMD. The results show that the HFMD transmission rate in all provinces of China has obvious seasonality. According to the peak time of HFMD transmission rate, the provinces can be divided into four regions: the peak period of HFMD transmission rate in the southeast region is from February to March, which is affected by the spring festival travel rush; the peak time in the northwest region is April and its seasonality is mainly affected by relative humidity and spring Festival travel rush; in the northern region, the peak period happens in May, which is associated with average temperature, summer vacation and spring festival travel rush; the peak of Tibet Autonomous Region is in August. The seasonality of its isn’t affected by climate or the contact rate.
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Received: 13 June 2019
Published: 24 October 2019
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