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| Game Simulation of Water Resource Conflict Evolution in Transboundary Rivers |
| YUAN Liang, QI Yuzhi, HE Weijun, LI Wenqin, WU Xia
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| School of Economics and Management, China Three Gorges University, Yichang 443002, China |
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Abstract In order to analyze the influence of individual behavioral characteristics and decision making preferences on the evolution of water resources conflicts, the authors introduced prospect theory into the evolution game of transboundary river water resources conflict analysis, applied the prospect value function to construct the perceived benefit matrix of the water resource conflicts between upstream and downstream regions, used evolutionary games to analyze the evolutionary paths and results of decision-making behaviors of upstream and downstream regions, and constructed a system dynamics model for simulation analysis. The results show that: upstream and downstream regions need to meet the complex game conditions for selection of the cooperation strategy set, and when the perceived cost of active water release from upstream, the perceived income of passive water release from upstream, the perceived cost of active pursuit increase from the downstream, and the perceived costs of water conflict risks decrease, the probability of choosing the cooperation strategy set will be reduced, and water resources conflict will occur.
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Received: 20 March 2022
Published: 08 October 2023
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