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复杂系统与复杂性科学  2014, Vol. 11 Issue (4): 80-86    DOI: 10.13306/j.1672-3813.2014.04.014
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物流系统出库行为动力学的统计特征分析
姚灿中
华南理工大学经济与贸易学院,广州 510006
The Study of Behavior Dynamics of Large Logistics System Based On Time Scaling Law
YAO Canzhong
School of Economics and Commerce, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China
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摘要 首先对某大型物流基地产品出库的间隔分布进行分析,发现物流基地内各不同仓库的钢材产品出库间隔均具有显著阵发特征,出库时间间隔较为一致地服从幂指数为2.5的幂律分布,而个体的出库行为则不具有阵发特征。进一步地,对物流系统的阵发特征产生机理,物流系统的节假日及内部作业等问题进行探讨。最后,利用重极标差方法,发现物流系统产品出库量普遍服从分形布朗运动,HURST指数大于0.5。结果表明物流基地的产品出库量不仅受当前市场价格的引导,且具有长记忆性,与过去的出库量密切相关。
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姚灿中
关键词 幂律分布阵发物流系统出库    
Abstract:In the paper, we firstly find that the steel products warehouse-out of all the warehouses in the large-scale logistics base is characterized by burst and the warehouse-out inter-event time follow the power-law distribution with exponents close to 2.5. On the meanwhile, compared with the group behaviors, the individual behavior does not show the burst feature in logistics system. Further, we discuss the burst mechanism caused by the festival holidays and interior task scheduling. Finally, the paper uses the R/S method to analyze the amount of the warehouse-out and finds it obey fractional Brownian motion. The Hurst over 0.5 means that the present warehouse-out of the logistics base is not only affected by the market price, but also related to the amount of the past accumulated amount.
Key wordspower-law distribution    burst    logistics system    warehouse-out
收稿日期: 2013-09-08      出版日期: 2026-06-22
基金资助:国家自然科学基金(71201060);教育部高校博士点基金(20120172120051);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金(11YJCZH211);中央高校基本科研业务费(2013ZM0117)
作者简介: 姚灿中(1983-),男,广东汕头人,博士,副教授,主要研究方向为复杂系统的行为动力学。
引用本文:   
姚灿中. 物流系统出库行为动力学的统计特征分析[J]. 复杂系统与复杂性科学, 2014, 11(4): 80-86.
YAO Canzhong. The Study of Behavior Dynamics of Large Logistics System Based On Time Scaling Law[J]. Complex Systems and Complexity Science, 2014, 11(4): 80-86.
链接本文:  
https://fzkx.qdu.edu.cn/CN/10.13306/j.1672-3813.2014.04.014      或      https://fzkx.qdu.edu.cn/CN/Y2014/V11/I4/80
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