Abstract：In order to analyze the influence of individual behavioral characteristics and decision making preferences on the evolution of water resources conflicts, the authors introduced prospect theory into the evolution game of transboundary river water resources conflict analysis, applied the prospect value function to construct the perceived benefit matrix of the water resource conflicts between upstream and downstream regions, used evolutionary games to analyze the evolutionary paths and results of decision-making behaviors of upstream and downstream regions, and constructed a system dynamics model for simulation analysis. The results show that: upstream and downstream regions need to meet the complex game conditions for selection of the cooperation strategy set, and when the perceived cost of active water release from upstream, the perceived income of passive water release from upstream, the perceived cost of active pursuit increase from the downstream, and the perceived costs of water conflict risks decrease, the probability of choosing the cooperation strategy set will be reduced, and water resources conflict will occur.
袁亮, 祁煜智, 何伟军, 李闻钦, 吴霞. 跨国界河流水资源冲突演化博弈模拟研究[J]. 复杂系统与复杂性科学, 2023, 20(3): 90-96.
YUAN Liang, QI Yuzhi, HE Weijun, LI Wenqin, WU Xia. Game Simulation of Water Resource Conflict Evolution in Transboundary Rivers[J]. Complex Systems and Complexity Science, 2023, 20(3): 90-96.
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