Abstract：In this paper, we estimated the transmission rate seasonality of hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Anhui province, and analyzed the relationship between the population flux and the transmission rate seasonality of HFMD. The transmission rate of HFMD was estimated by using TSIR model and the simple mass model; the transmission rate seasonality of HFMD was analyzed. The relationship between the population flux (transport volume of highway passenger) and the transmission rate seasonality of HFMD was analyzed by using linear regression model. Results of our two models show that the transmission rate of HFMD has annual seasonality, the peek of transmission rate occurred in February every year during the Spring Festival. The annual transmission rate seasonality was because of the population flux in Anhui province. These results can help to analyze dynamic transmission characteristics of HFMD and can better explain the cyclic pattern of HFMD report case.
陈佶, 范学志, 赵继军. 手足口病传染率季节性及其与人口流动的关系[J]. 复杂系统与复杂性科学, 2017, 14(3): 97-102.
CHEN Ji, FAN Xuezhi, ZHAO Jijun. Transmission Rate Seasonality of Hand Foot and Mouth Disease and Its Relationship with Population Flux. Complex Systems and Complexity Science, 2017, 14(3): 97-102.
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