Forecast on China’s Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions Driven by Micro Innovation
WU Jing1, WANG Zheng1,2, ZHU Qianting3, GONG Yi4
1. Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190,China; 2. Key Laboratory of Geographical Information Science, Ministry of State Education of China, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062,China; 3. School of Business Administration, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China; 4. Beijing Decision-making Consultant Center, Beijing 100089,China
Abstract：This paper integrates input-output model with agent-based simulation, in which an input-output model with 17 sectors is established at the macro economy level, and an agent-based model is developed simulating firms’ innovations in each sector at the micro economy level. The emergency of industrial structure evolution,energy consumption change and carbon emission change at the macro level are driven by innovations of firm agents. Results show that due to the uncertainty of innovation, the peak years of energy and emission are also uncertain. The energy peak year will subject to a normal distribution from 2025 to 2036; while the distribution of emission peak year is also identified as a normal distribution from 2024 to 2033. The year with the maximum probability for energy peak will be 2031 with the probability of 23.57%; and 2029 will be the year with the maximum probability 33.51% for emission peak. Taking the average of 50 simulations, it is indicated that the energy peak will be 5146Mtce in 2029, and the emission peak will be 2.7GtC in 2029.
吴静, 王铮, 朱潜挺, 龚轶. 微观创新驱动下的中国能源消费与碳排放趋势研究[J]. 复杂系统与复杂性科学, 2016, 13(4): 68-79.
WU Jing, WANG Zheng, ZHU Qianting, GONG Yi. Forecast on China’s Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions Driven by Micro Innovation[J]. Complex Systems and Complexity Science, 2016, 13(4): 68-79.
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