Abstract：The research aims to find the key causes and their relationships of express safety accidents. Based on the complex network theory, the Express Safety Accident Causation Network (ESACN) was constructed by setting factors as nodes and their relationships as arcs. There are 40 factors nodes extracting from personnel, express, equipment, environment, management and results. This study found that the ESACN is a small world network. Meanwhile the intermediary centrality is obvious and there is a 3-core high-density cloud in ESACN. The result indicates that casualties, express fire, express damage, property loss and transportation vehicle problems are the key factors in ESACN. Among these factors, the accumulation and damage of express have the most significant effect on accident risk transmission. The high-density correlation among the 15 factors plays a core role in the occurrence of accidents.
任翠萍, 杨明翔, 张裕铭, 谢逢洁. 快递安全事故致因网络构建及结构特性分析[J]. 复杂系统与复杂性科学, 2023, 20(2): 74-80.
REN Cuiping, YANG Mingxiang, ZHANG Yuming, XIE Fengjie. The Construction of Express Safety Accident Causation Network and Its Structural Properties. Complex Systems and Complexity Science, 2023, 20(2): 74-80.
[1] 卢文刚, 孙家根. 快递行业公共安全:风险分析与协同治理——以A市全业务链快递邮件为例[J]. 广州大学学报(社会科学版), 2021, 20(4): 83-92. LU W G, SUN J G. Risks analysis and collaborative management in public security of express industry: a case of full service chain express mail in a city[J]. Journal of Guangzhou University (Social Science Edition), 2021, 20(4):83-92. [2] 李妙诘. 快递行业寄递渠道突发事件应急管理研究——基于邮政管理部门视角[D]. 海口: 海南大学, 2017. LI M J. Posting network of express industry emergency management—the view of postal administration[D]. Haikou: Hainan University, 2017. [3] 苏尉. 唐山市快递行业安全监管研究[D]. 成都: 西南交通大学, 2018. SU W. Research on safety supervision of express industry in Tangshan[D]. Chengdu: Southwest Jiaotong University, 2018. [4] 严贝妮, 叶宗勇, 段梦丽. 快递用户个人信息安全隐患成因解析——基于用户角度的调查研究[J]. 现代情报,2018,38(2):91-95. YAN B N, YE Z Y, DUAN M L. Analysis of the cause of personal information security risks of express users—investigation from user’s angle[J]. Journal of Modern Information, 2018, 38(2): 91-95. [5] 典帅. 我国快递业安全管控研究[D]. 北京: 中国人民公安大学, 2017. DIAN S. Research on the safety control of China’s express delivery industry[D]. Beijing: People’s Public Security University of China, 2017. [6] 王亚博. 我国快递场所安全管理风险与对策研究[J]. 物流工程与管理, 2019, 41(11): 137-139. WANG Y B. Study on the risk and countermeasure of safety management of express industry in China[J]. Logistics Engineering and Management, 2019, 41(11): 137-139. [7] 张橙. 快递员职业安全行为影响因素的实证研究[D]. 石家庄: 河北经贸大学, 2018. ZHANG C. An empirical study on the factors affecting the occupational safety behavior of express delivery officers[D]. Shijiazhuang: Hebei University of Economics and Business, 2018. [8] 傅杰, 邹艳丽, 谢蓉. 基于复杂网络理论的电力网络关键线路识别[J]. 复杂系统与复杂性科学, 2017, 14(3): 91-96. FU J, ZOU Y L, XIE R. The critical lines identification of the power grids based on the complex network theory[J]. Complex System and Complexity Science, 2017, 14(3): 91-96. [9] 种鹏云,尹惠.基于复杂网络的危险品道路运输网络优化策略研究[J]. 复杂系统与复杂性科学, 2018, 15(3): 56-65. CHONG Y P, YIN H. Analysis on optimization strategies of hazardous materials road transportation network using complex network theory[J]. Complex System and Complexity Science, 2018, 15(3): 56-65. [10] WATTS D J, STROGATZ S H. Collective dynamics of ‘small-world’ networks[J]. Nature, 1998, 393: 440-442. [11] NEWMAN M E J. The structure and function of complex networks[J]. SIAM Review, 2003,45(2):167-256. [12] 花玲玲,郑伟. 基于复杂网络理论的铁路事故致因分析[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2019, 29(S1): 118-123. HUA L L, ZHENG W. Research on causation of railway accidents based on complex network theory[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2019, 29(S1):118-123. [13] LI K P, Wang S S. A network accident causation model for monitoring railway safety[J]. Safety Science. 2018, 109: 398-402. [14] LIU J T, SCHMID F, ZHENG W, et al. Understanding railway operational accidents using network theory[J]. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2019, 189(C): 218-231. [15] ZHOU J, XU W, GUO X, et al. A method for modeling and analysis of directed weighted accident causation network (DWACN) [J]. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 2015, 437: 263-277. [16] 马小薇. 基于复杂网络的地铁事故致因机理研究[D]. 成都: 西南交通大学, 2019. MA X W. Research on the causation mechanism of metro accidents based on complex network theory[D]. Chengdu: Southwest Jiaotong University, 2019. [17] ZHOU Z P, IRIZARRY J, LI Q M. Using network theory to explore the complexity of subway construction accident network (SCAN) for promoting safety management[J]. Safety Science, 2014, 64:127-136. [18] 郭文亚, 周志鹏. 地铁工程建设安全事故致因网络模型构建与解析[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2020, 30(1): 155-161. GUO W Y, ZHOU Z P. Subway construction accident causation network modeling and analysis[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2020, 30(1):155-161. [19] 胡立伟, 杨鸿飞, 何越人, 等. 基于复杂网络的营运货车交通事故风险因素识别[J]. 交通运输工程与信息学报, 2022,20(1): 128-134. HU L W, YANG H F, HE Y R, et al. Driving risk identification of commercial trucks based on complex network theory[J]. Journal of Transportation Engineering and Information, 2022, 20(1): 128-134. [20] LIU S L, LIANG Y T. Exploring the temporal structure of time series data for hazardous liquid pipeline incidents based on complex network theory[J]. International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, 2019, 26: 1-13. [21] 蔡婷婷, 刘祥伟, 刘云霞. 基于复杂网络理论的危险品事故原因实证分析[J]. 哈尔滨商业大学学报(自然科学版), 2020, 36(4): 485-492. CAI T T, LIU X W, LIU Y X. An empirical analysis of causes of dangerous goods accidents based on complex network theory[J]. Journal of Harbin University of Commerce (Natural Sciences Edition), 2020, 36(4): 485-492. [22] GUO S Y, ZHOU X Y, TANG B, et al. Exploring the behavioral risk chains of accidents using complex network theory in the construction industry[J]. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 2020, 560: 1-14. [23] 汪送. 复杂系统安全事故致因网络建模分析[J]. 中国安全科学学报,2013,23(2):111-118. WANG S. Modelling analysis of complex system accident causation network[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2013, 23(2):111-118. [24] 田水承. 第三类危险源辨识与控制研究[D]. 北京: 北京理工大学,2001. TIAN S C. Research on identification and control of the third kind of hazard sources[D]. Beijing: Beijing Institute of Technology, 2001.
