A Study of Risk Propagation in Natural Gas Pipeline Networks Based on Complex Networks
DAI Jianyong, GAN Meiyan, ZHANG Meirong, MAO Jiazhi, LIU Chao
a. School of Resource Environment and Safety Engineering; b. Hunan Province Key Laboratory of Emergency Safety Technology and Equipment for Nuclear Facilities, University of South China, Hengyang 421001, China
Abstract：To improve pipeline safety monitoring and maintenance, the optimal risk transmission path of the natural gas pipeline network is explored. Firstly, the network topology is constructed based on complex network theory, and the importance of network nodes is ranked by entropy weight-TOPSIS method. Secondly, the risk propagation model of the natural gas pipeline network is constructed, the failure rate and vulnerability of network nodes are defined, and the risk propagation degree and optimal risk propagation path of nodes under deliberate and random failure strategies are obtained. Finally, based on the empirical analysis of the Shanghai natural gas pipeline network, the results show that the total risk of intentional damage propagation is greater than that of random damage in the case of cascade risk, which provides a basis for pipeline topology optimization and maintenance.
戴剑勇, 甘美艳, 张美荣, 毛佳志, 刘朝. 基于复杂网络的天然气管道网络风险传播研究[J]. 复杂系统与复杂性科学, 2024, 21(3): 69-76.
DAI Jianyong, GAN Meiyan, ZHANG Meirong, MAO Jiazhi, LIU Chao. A Study of Risk Propagation in Natural Gas Pipeline Networks Based on Complex Networks[J]. Complex Systems and Complexity Science, 2024, 21(3): 69-76.
[1] FARZANEH-GORD M, RAHBARI H R. Response of natural gas distribution pipeline networks to ambient temperature variation[J]. Journal of Natural Gas Science and Engineering, 2018, 52: 94-105. [2] BARIHA N, MISHRA I M, SRIVASTAVA V C. Hazard analysis of failure of natural gas and petroleum gas pipelines[J]. Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 2016, 40: 217-226. [3] 彭开和. 基于十堰市“6·13”重大燃气爆炸事故的城市天然气管道事故原因分析及对策研究[J]. 工业安全与环保, 2022, 48(5): 20-22. PENG K H.Study on the causes and countermeasures of urban natural gas pipeline accidents based on the “June 13” gas explosion accident in Shiyan[J]. Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection, 2022, 48(5): 20-22. [4] 张之刚, 常朝稳, 韩培胜, 等. Risk Rank:一种网络风险传播分析方法[J]. 重庆大学学报, 2021, 44(9): 132-138. ZHANG Z G,CHAO Y G,HANG P S,et al.Risk rank:an analysis method of network risk propagation[J]. Journal of Chongqing University, 2021, 44(9): 132-138. [5] 王冬. 复杂网络的拓扑结构对传播动力学的影响研究[D]. 哈尔滨: 哈尔滨工业大学(深圳校区), 2021. WANG D.Research on the influence of topological structures of complex networks on propagation dynamics[D]. Harbin: Harbin Institute of Technology(Shenzhen),2021. [6] BAI Y P, WU J S, REN Q R, et al. A BN-based risk assessment model of natural gas pipelines integrating knowledge graph and DEMATEL[J]. Process Safety and Environmental Protection, 2023, 171: 640-654. [7] WANG X, DUAN Q Q. Improved AHP-TOPSIS model for the comprehensive risk evaluation of oil and gas pipelines[J]. Petroleum Science, 2019, 16: 1479-1492. [8] 田思祺, 高鹏, 刘畅. 基于云模型的跨越管道综合风险评估[J]. 油气储运, 2021, 40(7): 822-827. TIAN S Q,GAO P,LIU C. Comprehensive risk assessment of crossover pipelines based on cloud model[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2021, 40(7): 822-827. [9] 刘海云, 韩晓松, 翟振岗, 等. 基于复杂网络的燃气管线破裂灾害链风险分析[J]. 中国安全生产科学技术,2020,16(9):37-42. LIU H Y,HAN X S,ZHAI Z G, et al. Risk analysis on rupture disaster chain of gas pipeline based on complex network[J]. Journal of Safety Science and Technology, 2020, 16(9): 37-42. [10] WANG W C, ZHANG Y, LI Y X, et al. Vulnerability analysis of a natural gas pipeline network based on network flow[J]. International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping, 2020, 188: 104236. [11] YE H, LI Z P, LI G Y, et al. Topology analysis of natural gas pipeline networks based on complex network theory[J].Energies, 2022,15(11): 3864. [12] DU Y X, GAO C, HU Y, et al. A new method of identifying influential nodes in complex networks based on TOPSIS[J]. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 2014, 399: 57-69. [13] CHEN P Y. Effects of the entropy weight on TOPSIS[J]. Expert Systems with Applications, 2021, 168: 114186. [14] 高双. 级联失效下武汉市轨道交通网络抗毁性研究[D]. 武汉: 武汉理工大学, 2017. GAO S.Research on invulnerability of Wuhan rail transit network[D].Wuhan: Wuhan University of Technology, 2017. [15] WANG J W, RONG L L. A model for cascading failures in scale-free networks with a breakdown probability[J]. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 2009, 388(7): 1289-1298. [16] FU C Q, WANG Y, WANG X Y. Research on complex networks' repairing characteristics due to cascading failure[J]. Physica A-Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 2017, 482: 317-324. [17] WANG Z, HU Y Y, DONG R,et al. Determination of the risk propagation path of cascading faults in chemical material networks based on complex networks[J]. The Canadian Journal of Chemical Engineering, 2021, 99(s1): S540-S550.
